Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | $1,723 | +1.6% | -0.9% |
| 2026-07-10 | $1,727 | +0.2% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-13 | $1,720 | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | $1,728 | +0.5% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-15 | $1,728 | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-16 ◀ Today | $1,684 | -2.5% | -3.1% |
Today = vs the Jul 15 official close ($1,727.82). Live intraday marks (Thu midday MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,738.14).
Baseline note (Jul 16): today’s move is measured against the Jul 15 official close of $1,727.82. Yesterday’s update was emitted from early-session marks at $1,730.95; the small difference to the official close is a basis step, not a return.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $394.88 | -4.3% | +18.2% | 23.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $206.82 | -2.7% | +11.9% | 12.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $56.96 | +0.8% | +16.5% | 10.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $168.49 | -2.0% | -5.0% | 10.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $75.18 | -0.3% | -0.8% | 8.9% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $48.71 | 0.0% | -6.0% | 8.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $32.92 | -0.4% | -12.7% | 7.8% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $39.11 | -4.4% | -30.9% | 7.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $103.48 | -7.4% | -62.1% | 6.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $94.14 | -3.4% | -41.5% | 5.6% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Jul 15 official close. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Thu midday MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense33.5%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy23.3%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.9%
- 🌎 International17.6%
- 🏦 Long Bonds7.8%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 33.5% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $394.88 | $394.88 | 23.4% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $168.49 | $168.49 | 10.0% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 23.3% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $56.96 | $170.88 | 10.1% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $39.11 | $117.33 | 7.0% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $103.48 | $103.48 | 6.1% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.9% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $206.82 | $206.82 | 12.3% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $94.14 | $94.14 | 5.6% |
| 🌎 International — 17.6% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $75.18 | $150.36 | 8.9% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $48.71 | $146.13 | 8.7% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 7.8% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $32.92 | $131.68 | 7.8% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,684 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | — | — | — | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -3.1%▲ | — | -12.3% | ||||
▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Monthly figures are shown only for months we tracked and published daily — our daily archive begins 15 April 2026, so Jan–Mar are marked — rather than estimated. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals, no filled-in gaps. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; for months before that we show no monthly figure rather than an estimate. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
The chip selloff that started in Asia pulled Safe Growth down about 2.5% today. It began in Seoul, where SK Hynix fell 11% and the KOSPI dropped roughly 6% as the Bank of Korea raised rates for the first time in over three years. NVDA fell close to 3% and MSTR near 3.5% as that wave hit US semiconductors. This book carries that exposure on purpose, sized small.
Diversification did its job at the edges but not everywhere. XLE rose as oil held firm near a one-month high after the Strait of Hormuz flared again. The metals sleeve did not help: NUGT fell more than 7% and URA more than 4% as risk came out of the market broadly. This was a risk-off day, not a clean rotation into safety.
TMF was roughly flat. Three times long Treasuries still needs actual rate cuts, and the path is not obliging. Even after soft June inflation, futures lean toward a hold at the July 29 FOMC and price real odds of a hike into the fall, so TMF stays on WATCH.
No trades. The point of a ten-sleeve book is to spread a day like this across positions that do not move together, and it did. We would rather hold a diversified slate through a chip-led drawdown than chase the names doing the damage.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, July 16, 2026
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.