Recent Performance — Last 10 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | May Closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | $1,865 | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| 2026-06-05 | $1,762 | -5.5% | -0.6% |
| 2026-06-08 | $1,779 | +0.9% | +0.3% |
| 2026-06-09 | $1,760 | -1.1% | -0.7% |
| 2026-06-10 | $1,703 | -3.3% | -4.0% |
| 2026-06-11 | $1,768 | +3.8% | -0.3% |
| 2026-06-12 | $1,780 | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| 2026-06-15 | $1,832 | +2.9% | +3.4% |
| 2026-06-16 | $1,830 | -0.2% | +3.2% |
| 2026-06-17 ◀ Today | $1,830 | -0.1% | -3.5% |
Apr open return vs Apr 1 ($1,773). Unit values from live Finnhub prices.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $407.73 | +0.2% | +21.2% | 22.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $207.43 | -2.4% | +16.5% | 11.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $176.48 | +0.4% | -0.1% | 9.6% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $55.22 | -0.6% | +16.8% | 9.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 3x Gold Miners | $158.38 | +4.7% | -39.4% | 8.7% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $78.21 | +0.6% | +4.8% | 8.5% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.42 | +0.3% | -4.5% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $35.93 | +2.1% | -0.7% | 7.9% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $47.81 | -0.5% | -11.7% | 7.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $122.83 | -6.4% | -23.3% | 6.7% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs prev close. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. ● = category. Prices via Finnhub.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- Infrastructure & Defense31.9%
- Energy & Commodities25.5%
- AI & Tech11.3%
- Crypto Treasury6.7%
- Emerging Markets16.6%
- Bonds & Rates7.9%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 31.9% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | ×1 | $407.73 | $407.73 | 22.3% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | ×1 | $176.48 | $176.48 | 9.6% |
| ⚡ Energy & Commodities — 25.5% | |||||
| NUGT | 3x Gold Miners | ×1 | $158.38 | $158.38 | 8.7% |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | ×3 | $55.22 | $165.66 | 9.1% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | ×3 | $47.81 | $143.43 | 7.8% |
| 🤖 AI & Tech — 11.3% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | ×1 | $207.43 | $207.43 | 11.3% |
| ₿ Crypto Treasury — 6.7% | |||||
| MSTR | Bitcoin Treasury | ×1 | $122.83 | $122.83 | 6.7% |
| 🌏 Emerging Markets — 16.6% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | ×2 | $78.21 | $156.42 | 8.5% |
| INDA | India ETF | ×3 | $49.42 | $148.26 | 8.1% |
| 📊 Bonds & Rates — 7.9% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | ×4 | $35.93 | $143.72 | 7.9% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,830 | 100% | |||
| Entry: $1,920 on Jan 22, 2026 | Current: $1,830 | Since entry: -4.7% | |||||
Value/unit = shares × price. Weights at today's open prices.
Monthly Track Record
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3% | -3% | -8% | +10.0% | -3.5% | -2.8%▲ | — | — | — | — | — | — | -4.7% |
▲ Current month through today. YTD from Jan 22, 2026 entry.
📊 Market Narrative — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
The Safe Growth portfolio slipped -0.1% today, a modest pullback that masks significant divergence beneath the surface. Our unit value stands at $1,830.34, maintaining a solid +3.2% gain since our January 22nd entry. Let's be direct about what happened: MSTR cratered -6.3% as Bitcoin retreated while gold surged past $5,080/oz — a classic risk-off rotation that punished crypto-linked assets. Meanwhile, our bond exposure via TMF (+0.6%) and emerging market positions in INDA (+0.3%) and EWW (+0.3%) absorbed the blow. This is exactly how portfolio diversification is supposed to work, even when individual components carry elevated volatility.
The U.S.-Iran deal announced yesterday continues reverberating through markets. The Dow closed at a record high on optimism that eased Middle East tensions could stabilize oil supply, yet XLE drifted -0.3% to $55.22 today as traders price in potentially lower crude prices ahead. The political narrative from Washington suggests relief at the pump may take time — Politico reports Republicans are "hopeful but skeptical" the deal delivers before voters feel it. For our energy exposure, this creates a near-term headwind but doesn't change the structural case: geopolitical risk premiums can snap back quickly if implementation falters, and XLE remains a portfolio stabilizer with defensive cash flow characteristics.
The semiconductor complex remains under pressure following yesterday's AI chip forecast disappointment from a major networking chipmaker, which triggered cascading losses across the sector — AMD fell 17%, and memory names dropped 9-12% over two sessions. NVDA retreated -2.4% to $207.43, though notably it's showing relative resilience compared to peers. The setup here is instructive: NVDA's dominant position in AI training infrastructure insulates it somewhat from the custom chip concerns weighing on competitors. With $670 billion in projected AI capex flowing into the ecosystem, NVDA remains the primary beneficiary — analyst targets near $350 suggest substantial upside if execution continues, though near-term volatility is the price of admission.
All eyes now turn to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first major policy decision this afternoon. Markets expect rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, but the updated economic projections and Warsh's tone will set the narrative. The 10-year yield's recent surge signals traders are abandoning hopes for near-term cuts. TMF's +0.6% gain today reflects positioning ahead of the announcement — if Warsh signals patience rather than hawkishness, our 3x leveraged Treasury position could extend gains. Conversely, any hint that rate cuts are off the table until 2027 would pressure both bonds and growth equities.
Key Watch for Today: Fed statement at 2:00 PM ET and Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM. Watch for language on inflation persistence and any shift in the dot plot. Big Tech earnings (several mega-caps reporting Wednesday-Thursday) will determine whether the semiconductor weakness spreads or stabilizes. Gold's move above $5,080 bears monitoring — continued strength would pressure MSTR further while potentially supporting defensive positioning.
Our Stance: Hold all positions. Today's -0.1% decline is noise within a portfolio designed to balance growth opportunities (NVDA, MSTR) against stabilizers (TMF, XLE, emerging markets). Yes, MSTR's -6.3% single-day move is painful — that's the inherent volatility of Bitcoin-linked exposure, which we sized accordingly. The diversification worked: losses were contained. We're watching the Fed closely but see no reason to adjust positioning ahead of clarity on rate trajectory. Stay patient, stay diversified.
AI Research: Claude Opus + Perplexity live intel | Rating: A | Wednesday, June 17, 2026
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This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.