April–May 2026 — Day by Day
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | May MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $1,913 | -0.3% | +7.9% |
| 2026-04-16 | $1,915 | +0.1% | +8.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | $1,928 | +0.8% | +8.7% |
| 2026-04-20 | $1,954 | +0.4% | +10.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1,966 | +0.6% | +10.9% |
| 2026-04-22 | $1,938 | -1.3% | +9.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | $1,949 | +0.5% | +9.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | $1,950 | +0.1% | +10.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | $1,911 | -2.0% | -2.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | $1,902 | -0.5% | -2.5% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1,968 | +3.4% | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-07 | $1,926 | -2.1% | -1.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | $1,950 | +1.2% | -0.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | $1,999 | +2.5% | +2.5% |
| 2026-05-12 | $1,957 | -2.1% | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-13 | $1,955 | -0.1% | +0.2% |
| 2026-05-14 | $1,963 | +0.4% | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-15 | $1,888 | -3.8% | -3.2% |
| 2026-05-18 | $1,858 | -1.6% | -4.7% |
| 2026-05-19 ◀ Today | $1,824 | -1.6% | -6.5% |
Apr open return vs Apr 1 ($1,773). Unit values from live Finnhub prices.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $373.01 | -2.3% | +10.8% | 20.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $221.62 | -0.3% | +24.5% | 12.2% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $60.66 | +0.1% | +28.3% | 10.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $165.33 | +0.9% | +3.2% | 9.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $164.53 | -1.2% | -6.9% | 9.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $76.88 | -1.3% | +3.0% | 8.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 3x Gold Miners | $152.84 | -6.5% | -41.5% | 8.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $47.32 | -2.8% | -12.6% | 7.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $47.20 | -1.4% | -8.8% | 7.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.78 | -0.1% | -12.2% | 7.0% | WATCH 👀 |
Today = vs prev close. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. ● = category. Prices via Finnhub.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- Infrastructure & Defense29.5%
- Energy & Commodities26.1%
- AI & Tech12.2%
- Crypto Treasury9.1%
- Emerging Markets16.2%
- Bonds & Rates7.0%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 29.5% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | ×1 | $373.01 | $373.01 | 20.5% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | ×1 | $164.53 | $164.53 | 9.0% |
| ⚡ Energy & Commodities — 26.1% | |||||
| NUGT | 3x Gold Miners | ×1 | $152.84 | $152.84 | 8.4% |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | ×3 | $60.66 | $181.98 | 10.0% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | ×3 | $47.32 | $141.96 | 7.8% |
| 🤖 AI & Tech — 12.2% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | ×1 | $221.62 | $221.62 | 12.2% |
| ₿ Crypto Treasury — 9.1% | |||||
| MSTR | Bitcoin Treasury | ×1 | $165.33 | $165.33 | 9.1% |
| 🌏 Emerging Markets — 16.2% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | ×2 | $76.88 | $153.76 | 8.4% |
| INDA | India ETF | ×3 | $47.20 | $141.60 | 7.8% |
| 📊 Bonds & Rates — 7.0% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | ×4 | $31.78 | $127.12 | 7.0% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,824 | 100% | |||
| Entry: $1,920 on Jan 22, 2026 | Current: $1,824 | Since entry: -5.0% | |||||
Value/unit = shares × price. Weights at today's open prices.
Monthly Track Record
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3% | -3% | -8% | +10.0% | -6.5%▲ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | YTD |
▲ Current month through today. YTD from Jan 22, 2026 entry.
📊 Market Narrative — Tuesday, May 19, 2026
The Safe Growth portfolio is giving back ground today, down -1.6% as inflation fears and rate-hike repricing pressure risk assets across the board. Our unit value sits at $1,823.75, down -5.0% from our January 22nd entry of $1,920 — navigating the same macro pressure weighing on the broader market. The Dow is set to open lower on fresh inflation concerns, and our rate-sensitive and commodity-linked positions are bearing the brunt.
The dominant story hitting our book is the Fed's updated May inflation forecast, which came in worse than expected. Markets have now priced in nearly 50% odds of a rate hike this year — up from less than 1% just a month ago. That's crushing our leveraged Treasury position: TMF dropped -2.3% to $31.78 as long-duration bonds sold off hard. This isn't a one-day blip; the entire rate narrative has shifted, and TMF will remain under pressure until inflation data cooperates. Meanwhile, gold miners are getting hammered — NUGT collapsed -6.5% to $152.84, its worst single-day move in weeks, as real yields rise and the dollar firms.
On the geopolitical front, reports of possible progress on Middle East de-escalation are pulling oil lower, which explains why XLE managed to eke out a +0.1% gain to $60.66 despite broader market weakness — the sector is simply holding better than the risk premium unwind would suggest. However, if crude continues to fade on softer headlines, energy could give back 1-3% relative to the S&P. Our uranium play URA fell -2.8% to $47.32, caught in the broader commodity selloff despite the bullish data center power narrative getting a boost from NextEra's announced acquisition of Dominion.
Key Watch for the Rest of Today: All eyes turn to NVDA earnings tomorrow (May 20). The Motley Fool is calling for the stock to "soar" post-report, and the setup matters enormously for our position — NVDA is down just -0.3% today at $221.62, showing unusual resilience. A strong beat with clean guidance could push the stock +4% to +8%; a disappointing guide could trigger a -5% to -9% drawdown and drag the entire AI complex with it. Also watch 10-year yields and any fresh Fed commentary — the rate repricing isn't done.
Our Stance: Hold all positions. Today's drawdown is painful but not structural — we're -5.0% from entry, and the NVDA catalyst tomorrow could shift sentiment quickly. TMF and NUGT are the pressure points; if rate-hike odds continue climbing toward 60%+, we'll need to reassess duration exposure. For now, we're staying disciplined and letting the earnings calendar do its work.
AI Research: Claude Opus + Perplexity live intel | Rating: A+ | Tuesday, May 19, 2026
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This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.