High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 22 mark ($1,432.98). That mark was published to the website on Thursday; none of Tuesday, October 20, Wednesday, October 21 and Thursday, October 22 was emailed or texted, so measured against Monday’s $1,431.36 — the last figure that actually reached you — the book is -3.3%. Live marks (Fri, 7:42 MDT, twelve minutes after the open, 9:42 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 22 (Thursday) published mark. Three consecutive sessions were published to the website but not emailed or texted — Tuesday, October 20, Wednesday, October 21 and Thursday, October 22 — so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Thursday’s tape kept falling after we marked at 9:47 Eastern, so Thursday’s official close landed below our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the harsher of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look better than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Thursday’s official close was $1,390.04 — 3.00% below our mark — so on the close basis today is -0.5%. Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note — read this before the headline, and read all three numbers, because one of them will mislead you if you take it alone. Three consecutive letters never reached you. Tuesday, October 20, Wednesday, October 21 and Thursday, October 22 were all built and published to the website, but no email and no text went out for any of them. So the last number you actually hold for this book is Monday’s $1,431.36, not Thursday’s $1,432.98. Harshest first, ordered by the numbers themselves. Measured from our own Oct 22 published mark of $1,432.98 it is -3.4%. Measured against the $1,431.36 you were last actually sent it is -3.3%. And measured from Thursday’s official close of $1,390.04 — the basis your own brokerage screen uses it is -0.5%. The -0.5% is the one to be careful with, and it is careless of us to let it stand alone. It is the mildest reading of the three and it is mildest only because it is measured from the lowest and most recent starting point. This book did not stand still across the letters you did not get: it fell from $1,431.36 to $1,390.04 by Thursday’s close, 2.89%, and it is -0.5% again today. Measured from what you were actually sent this book is -3.3%. October is -20.2% and the year -15.4%; those are the figures that describe the month honestly. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 22 mark, with the vs-Thursday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, 7:42 MDT, twelve minutes after the open, 9:42 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 22 (Thursday) published mark. Three consecutive sessions were published to the website but not emailed or texted — Tuesday, October 20, Wednesday, October 21 and Thursday, October 22 — so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Thursday’s tape kept falling after we marked at 9:47 Eastern, so Thursday’s official close landed below our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the harsher of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look better than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,384 on the current whole-share model. First the thing we owe you: three letters never went out. Tuesday, October 20, Wednesday, October 21 and Thursday, October 22 were all built and published to the website, and not one of them was emailed or texted. Here are the three readings in order of how bad they are, computed rather than chosen. From our own Oct 22 mark the book is -3.4%. From the $1,431.36 you were last actually sent it is -3.3%. And from Thursday’s official close of $1,390.04 it is -0.5%. That last number is the mildest and it is the one to distrust, because it measures from the lowest point of the four sessions. This book did not stand still while we were not writing to you: it fell 2.89% from what you were sent to Thursday’s close, and it is -0.5% again today. October is -20.2% month to date and the year is negative at -15.4%. Those two are the honest summary.

Bloom Energy reported last night. It beat on every line, raised its guidance for the third time this year, and was added to the S&P 500 — and the shares are down about nine percent. We read the company’s own filing rather than the coverage, so these are its numbers. Third-quarter revenue of $1.24 billion — $1,235.8 million exactly — up 138.1% on a year ago, with product revenue of $1,073.6 million up 179.4% and above a billion dollars for the first time. Non-GAAP gross margin 34.5%, non-GAAP operating margin 23.1%, GAAP diluted earnings of $0.78 a share and non-GAAP earnings of $0.94 against a consensus near $0.69. Full-year guidance was raised to revenue of $4.4–4.6 billion, about 122% growth at the midpoint, with non-GAAP earnings of $3.10–3.40 and non-GAAP operating income of $960 million to $1.03 billion. BE is -12.3% against our Thursday mark, -9.0% against Thursday’s close. Measured from Wednesday’s close of $238.53 — before it fell 8.7% into the print — it is -16.9% across two sessions. Its since-entry reading has flipped from a +10.1% gain on Thursday to -3.4% today.

Now the counterweight, and we are putting it immediately after the bad news rather than at the bottom, because without it that nine percent reads as something it is not. Today is one name, not this book. That is measured, not asserted: BE accounts for -1.41 percentage points of the book’s -0.5% against Thursday’s close. Hold BE at its own close and leave everything else exactly where it is, and this book would be +1.0% today. Three of the other four are higher on that basis and the fourth is down three-tenths of a percent: SOXL is -7.5% against our Thursday mark, +2.0% against Thursday’s close, MSTR is +0.8% against our Thursday mark, +1.6% against Thursday’s close, NBIS is -1.0% against our Thursday mark, +0.9% against Thursday’s close and TQQQ is -3.9% against our Thursday mark, -0.3% against Thursday’s close. The chip index rose 0.37% today. So this is emphatically not another chip-selloff session, and we are not going to write it as one just because the month has been full of them.

But the reason that nine percent matters more than one position is that it is the third time this month the same thing has happened, and it is the exact risk we described to you on October 15. That day, when Anthropic’s quarterly growth halved, we told you demand and financing were different risks deserving different reactions. That same morning TSMC beat its own guidance and the chip complex sold off regardless — that was the first. Then Lam Research reported after Wednesday’s close with record revenue, record profit and record earnings per share and guided the December quarter higher — and on Thursday its shares fell 11.8%. Today, Bloom posted 138% revenue growth, raised guidance a third time and joined the S&P 500 — and its shares fell about nine percent. Three for three: good results are not moving these shares, because the argument is not about demand. What is being repriced is the cost of the capital that funds the build-out. That is why we keep pointing you at CoreWeave’s borrowing cost rather than at order books. CoreWeave’s equity is -0.4% at our mark and has not recovered; its 2031 notes were last priced around a 15.5% yield on October 20, and we flag plainly that this is a dated reading rather than a live one — we are not going to imply we have a fresh print when we do not.

And a correction we owe you is now closed, with the unusual luxury of it closing in our favour. On October 19 — the last letter you actually received — we told you Bloom Energy and Nebius would both report on Thursday, October 22, and we put the two of them together at about 28% of this book — across two sessions, Nebius before the open and Bloom after the close, a framing that letter had itself corrected from an earlier description of one afternoon. We also flagged, in that same letter, that the Nebius date was carried by data providers rather than confirmed by the company. That caution was the right one. Nebius did not report. We checked again this morning against the company itself: its own investor-events page still reads ‘no upcoming events yet’, there is no filing announcing a date, and the providers have moved their estimate to November 10 while stating the company has not confirmed it. So last night was a one-name event at 14% of this book, not the 28% we described on Monday. We would rather correct a number downward than leave a scarier one standing because it sounded more careful.

One structural fact that has nothing to do with today’s news and needs saying on its own. Bitcoin is about $81,790 at our mark against roughly $81,320 at Thursday’s equity close, up about 0.6%. MSTR is +0.8% against our Thursday mark, +1.6% against Thursday’s close — so on the close basis the share rose rather more than the asset it holds. Its weight is now 42.8% of this unit against 41.0% on Thursday, which is the highest reading we have on record since this book was rebuilt on July 14, when it was 26.2%. Every bit of that increase is weight moving through price: not a single share has been traded. We name it because concentration that arrives by drawdown is still concentration — it is the other positions falling further that lifted it. The dated facts are unchanged and we print the mitigant beside the risk: the affected-company list publishes November 11, any exclusion takes effect only after the close on November 30, and an existing member is removed only if it fails the screen in each of its two most recent annual filing periods. We hold four shares, the review of trimming to three is closed, and no trade was made.

Bottom line: High Risk is at $1,384 a unit. All three readings, worst first: -3.4% against our own Oct 22 mark, -3.3% against the $1,431.36 you were last sent, and -0.5% against Thursday’s official close — that last one being the mildest only because it measures from the lowest point. October is -20.2% and the year -15.4%. Two positions flip sign between the two bases today. SOXL is -7.5% against our Thursday mark, +2.0% against Thursday’s close and NBIS is -1.0% against our Thursday mark, +0.9% against Thursday’s close. Nothing here is a change of view and nothing was traded. The structure, written down: 31% in two 3x daily-reset funds, 43% in a bitcoin treasury company carrying a dated index risk, and 26% in two AI-infrastructure names, of which one has now reported and one has not yet set a date. What we are watching, in order of how much it can move this page: whether Bloom’s nine percent fall on a record quarter holds or reverses, because that is the clearest test available of whether this is about results or about financing; CoreWeave’s bond yield, the cleanest read on the actual problem, where we currently have only a dated print; Nebius’s $3.5 billion 364-day secured facility and whether it gets termed out into longer money; the MSCI affected-company list on November 11 and the November 30 effective date, with MSTR at 42.8%; the Federal Reserve on October 27–28; and the midterms on November 3.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 23, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.