High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 12 mark ($1,694.38), published to the website on Monday; Monday was not emailed or texted, so vs Friday Oct 9’s emailed $1,705.16 the book is -5.3%. Live marks (Tue, ~7:31 MDT, about a minute after the open); the daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 12) published mark. Monday's update went to the website only - no email and no text was sent - so the move vs Friday Oct 9's emailed figure is printed as well. October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market reopens today after the Columbus Day close, so the long end is live again. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Monday’s official close was $1,658.30 — 2.13% below our mark — so on the close basis today is -2.7%. Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note — read this one before the numbers: today’s move is measured against our Oct 12 mark ($1,694.38), published on the website on Monday morning. Monday’s update was not emailed or texted, so the last figure that reached you was Friday Oct 9’s $1,705.16 — against which this book is -5.3%, and that is the number to read if Friday was the last one you saw. Monday’s official close was $1,658.30, 2.13% below our mark, so measured from that close the book is -2.7% — which is today’s move alone. All three readings are printed, and both bases are printed for every position below. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 12 mark, with the vs-Monday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Tue, ~7:31 MDT, about a minute after the open); the daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 12) published mark. Monday's update went to the website only - no email and no text was sent - so the move vs Friday Oct 9's emailed figure is printed as well. October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market reopens today after the Columbus Day close, so the long end is live again.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,614 on the current whole-share model, and we are going to lead with the number that matters rather than bury it: this book is now -1.4% for 2026 — below where it started the year. It was +3.5% on Monday. October is -6.8% month to date against -2.2% on Monday. There is no framing that improves those numbers and we are not going to attempt one. On the bases: -4.7% against our Monday mark, -2.7% against Monday’s official close of $1,658.30, and -5.3% against Friday’s $1,705.16 — which matters more than usual today, because Monday’s update was published to the website but no email and no text was sent. That was our failure. It means the last figure that reached you was Friday’s, and the drop you are reading spans two sessions rather than one. All three readings print here and all three are negative; the smallest of them, -2.7%, is today’s alone.

Semiconductors are the whole story for the second straight session and SOXL is the instrument. It reads -10.9% against our Monday mark and -8.4% against Monday’s close — by far the worst position in either book. The cause is competitive, not macro, and it got worse overnight: Samsung’s quarterly results landed alongside reports that China’s DeepSeek is building its own AI chip, stacked on Monday’s reports of progress at the Chinese memory maker CXMT on DDR5 server memory. Samsung fell about 7.4%, SK Hynix about 10%, SoftBank about 8%, Taiwan Semiconductor about 1.8%. The fear is specific: that Chinese supply is about to arrive in the one corner of the chip complex that has been genuinely scarce, which is memory, and that the pricing power underneath the whole AI capital-expenditure story is thinner than the valuations assume. SOXL is -34.5% since entry. We want to be exact about what that is: a 3x daily-reset fund amplifying a bad fortnight in its index is the instrument behaving as designed, not breaking. It stays a hold at the size it is. Taiwan Semiconductor reports later this week and is the first real test of the claim.

MSTR is the only thing in this book that held, and that deserves a warning rather than a victory lap. It is -1.3% against our Monday mark, +0.7% against Monday’s close — the one position where the two bases disagree in sign — with bitcoin firm near $84,000 as traders position ahead of tomorrow’s inflation print. Because everything around it fell and MSTR did not, it is now 38.1% of this unit, up from 36.8% on Monday, and we did not trade anything to make that happen. That is how a leveraged book quietly concentrates during a drawdown: the losers shrink and the survivor’s share grows. And the calendar is now close. MSCI delivers its decision on removing Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes on Thursday, October 16 — two sessions from now, with any change effective at the November review. If it goes against Strategy, the funds tracking those benchmarks become mechanical sellers of the largest position in this portfolio, at better than a third of the book. That is the single biggest event risk we are carrying and you should know it is there before Thursday rather than after. On the open item: our review of trimming from four shares to three is closed and we are holding four. No trade was made. If MSCI rules against Strategy and the stock gaps, you will hear from us that day, not at the next scheduled update.

The AI-infrastructure pair both fell hard and there is a date change you need. BE is -6.3% against our Monday mark, -3.8% against Monday’s close and NBIS is -6.2% against our Monday mark, -4.1% against Monday’s close. Bloom is being sold ahead of results and on questions about a valuation that has reached roughly $60 billion; Nebius fell with the rest of the AI complex. Correction to what we printed Monday: Bloom Energy confirmed yesterday that it reports third-quarter results on October 22, not October 29. We had the later date and it was wrong. That matters because NBIS also reports on October 22 — so roughly 28% of this book, held in two companies that are counterparties to each other, reprices on the same afternoon. Bloom is supplying more than 300 megawatts of solid-oxide fuel cells to Nebius under a ten-year agreement worth up to $2.6 billion, with a first project of 328 megawatts, and Oaktree and Industrial Development Funding have put $1.7 billion behind Bloom-powered infrastructure for Nebius’s AI cloud. Both have been good to us — BE +22.9% and NBIS +16.9% since our fills — and both stay holds. But their risk is not independent, trouble at one would not leave the other untouched, and now they report together. We would rather you knew that nine days out.

TQQQ is -3.9% against our Monday mark, -2.6% against Monday’s close with the Nasdaq 100 off roughly 1.2%, which is the leverage doing arithmetic rather than anything company-specific. It is +3.1% since entry and remains the one position in this book still carrying a gain from a rising index rather than a single story. Worth putting the structure in front of you, because a five-line table hides it: this book is 34% in two 3x daily-reset funds, 38% in a bitcoin treasury company facing an index decision in two days, and 28% in two AI-infrastructure counterparties reporting on the same day. Every one of those is a deliberate choice and every one of them is why this book moved 4.72% in a session where Safe Growth moved 0.37%.

On the year going negative, plainly. Our entry was $1,018 a unit on January 22 and the performance chain now stands at 1,004.22, so -1.4%. Safe Growth is +0.3% for October over the same stretch that this book gave up 6.85%, because it owns energy, bonds, gold and emerging markets rather than chips and crypto. That divergence is the two-book design working as intended, not a forecast — but it also means the leveraged book has handed back the whole of a strong September and more inside nine sessions, which is precisely the behaviour a 3x-levered portfolio is supposed to warn you about in advance rather than apologise for afterwards. Nothing here is a thesis change and nothing was traded.

Bottom line: High Risk is at $1,614 a unit — -4.7% against our Monday mark, -2.7% against Monday’s official close, -5.3% against Friday’s emailed figure, -6.8% for October and -1.4% for the year, which is now negative. Chips did the damage for a second day, MSTR was the only thing standing, and the AI-power pair gave back more than the index. What to watch, in order of how much it can move this page: the MSCI decision on Strategy this Thursday, October 16, with MSTR at 38.1% of the book; September CPI tomorrow at 8:30 Eastern; Taiwan Semiconductor later this week against the China memory story; then BE and NBIS together on October 22, the Fed on October 27–28 with October priced near a hold at 16–18%, and the midterms on November 3.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.