High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 7 mark ($1,792.52), which was emailed and texted. The Oct 6 row was archived but never emailed. Live marks (Thu, ~8:33 MDT, a few minutes after the open); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Oct 7) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 8): today’s move is measured against our Oct 7 mark ($1,792.52) — the number that was emailed and texted to you yesterday morning. That mark finished the day +0.09% away from Wednesday’s official close of $1,794.22, so the two bases agree today: against our mark the book is -1.7%, against Wednesday’s close -1.8%. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 7 mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Thu, ~8:33 MDT, a few minutes after the open); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Oct 7) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,763 on the current whole-share model, -1.7% against our Wednesday mark and +1.7% for October, with 2026 YTD at +7.7%, still positive on the year, with October now at +1.7% against +3.4% yesterday. Same basis note as the other book and it holds here too: Wednesday’s mark of $1,792.52 ended the day at $1,794.22, $1.70 apart, so against our mark the book is -1.7% and against Wednesday’s close -1.8%. One thing does need flagging at the position level: inside this book the names moved hard in opposite directions after our mark yesterday afternoon, so for SOXL, TQQQ, MSTR and NBIS the Today column and the number on your screen will not match. We have given both readings below rather than make you reconcile them.

Start with what did not happen. The S&P is down about a tenth of a percent and the Nasdaq about two tenths — this is not a broad selloff. The semiconductor index is down under one percent. What you are seeing is leverage and concentration, which is the entire design of this book. SOXL is +0.5% against our Wednesday mark, -2.9% against Wednesday’s close; TQQQ is +1.3% against our Wednesday mark, -0.5% against Wednesday’s close. A 3x fund on a chip index that fell less than a percent produces a move of a few percent, and our Wednesday mark happened to catch both funds before a strong afternoon, which is why the two readings differ so much for these two specifically. No chip headline, no guidance cut, no supply story. Both holds, and the trigger has not changed: these positions trade on the discount rate far more than on semiconductor news.

NBIS (-3.9% against our Wednesday mark, -2.9% against Wednesday’s close) is the weakest name again and the balance has not moved. The product side is real and still compounding: the Inferize acquisition folded into Token Factory, the Beam agentic open model, and a 17% to 21% increase in GPU rental pricing now sitting in the run rate. Against that, executive share sales have continued into October on top of the roughly $19 million disclosed the prior week, and the valuation leaves no room for disappointment — the multiple on sales is far above conventional cloud and software peers, and the capital expenditure needed to keep adding GPU clusters and secure data-center power is enormous. A position +33.8% since our fill will move like this in both directions. Strong hold with that caveat stated plainly, and we are not adding at this price.

BE (-2.8%) is lower and we want to be precise about why, because it is the kind of move that gets misread. There is no bad company news. UBS carries a Buy with a $350 target, raised from $325; Barclays went to $308 from $276 on October 1. The last quarter was a record at $1.07 billion of revenue against roughly $827 million expected, with adjusted earnings of $0.78 against $0.41. The position is +37.7% since our fill and the stock is up more than 200% on the year. What is happening is profit-taking in an expensive, rate-sensitive growth name on a day the long end is still above five and a half percent. It stays a hold. Earnings are October 29 and that is the next real test.

MSTR (-2.9% against our Wednesday mark, -0.8% against Wednesday’s close) is the position we are most focused on, and the date matters more than the percentage. Bitcoin is near $82,600, back below $83,000 after roughly $696 million of liquidations in a day, and MSTR is +60.5% since our fill — still a good trade giving some back. The problem is structural. MSCI has proposed removing Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes on the grounds that it is a non-operating company holding a large treasury asset, and the final decision is due this month with any changes taking effect in November. If it goes through, every fund tracking those benchmarks becomes a forced seller. That sits on top of a position that is 35% of this book and also appears in Safe Growth. Our recommendation to trim from four shares to three went to our team last Friday and is still pending; no trade has been made. The reason is position size and a known calendar event, not a view on bitcoin.

Bottom line: HR is down 1.7% today at $1,763 a unit, +1.7% for October and +7.7% for the year, while Safe Growth finished the morning +0.2%. That split is the point of running two books. Today High Risk paid for being leveraged into chips and crypto on a quiet tape; Safe Growth got paid for owning energy into an oil spike. The Fed’s September minutes, released after our mark yesterday, said most officials expect another hike by year end while the market prices one chance in four — that argument gets settled by September CPI on October 14. Before that, the MSCI decision on Strategy lands this month. The trim is with our team; you will see it here when it is made.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, October 8, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.