High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 24 published unit ($1,727). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 24) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 25): today’s move is measured against the Sep 24 published update ($1,727). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 24 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 24) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,766 on the current whole-share model, +2.3% versus Thursday's published update and +12.2% on the week. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +21.8% so far, and 2026 YTD is +7.9%, a fifth straight positive print for the year. Most of today's number was earned Thursday afternoon, after our update went out, and it came from two directions at once. The first was macro: around midday Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal whose first stage is Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz while Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, six sources, Qatar mediating, and a senior Iranian official on the record that "one way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages." The Nasdaq had opened down more than 1% on a 5.14% 10-year and closed a hair green at 26,939; the semiconductor index rallied close to 3% off its low, and a 3x fund turned that into SOXL (+8.7%), the best position in the book against Thursday's mark, up another 2% at this morning's open with Nasdaq futures firmer. The second was company-specific, and it is the one we owe you an update on. BE (+6.2%) is the second-best position against Thursday's mark after both counterparties to Oracle's force majeure notice answered it within hours. Bloom said it had spoken with Oracle and that Oracle "remains committed to Project Jupiter and its contract with Bloom to deliver 2.4 GW of fuel cell capacity" on the planned timeline; Oracle told CNBC the New Mexico campus is on schedule; and Blue Owl, the developer the notice was actually sent to, said it "does not change the parties' financial commitments." Morgan Stanley put out a note saying Bloom can absorb a delay at Jupiter. The stock still closed Thursday 3% below Wednesday, but that was well above where we marked it, it is up 29% in September on track for its best month since April, and it is higher again this morning. Our read stands: the contract is intact, the pipeline permit is the risk, the lead-plaintiff deadline in the scandium lawsuit is Monday, and a stock up 200% this year stays on the watch list even after a good answer. HOLD. TQQQ (+2.8%) is higher with the Nasdaq. NBIS (+2.4%) is higher against Thursday's mark and flat at the open; the morning's best read-through for it is Akamai, up more than 20% on an $11.6 billion, seven-year compute contract with Anthropic that comes with a warrant for about 5% of the company, which is the kind of long-dated capacity commitment Nebius's October 1 price increase is priced against. HOLD on all four; the SOXL swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund is still under review and goes in front of you before Micron reports Wednesday.

MSTR (-2.3%), at roughly 36% of this book, is the only position lower against Thursday's mark and is lower again at this morning's open, with bitcoin at about $83,900, flat over 24 hours. The event we flagged all week has come and gone: the quarterly options expiry settled before the US open this morning, the largest of the year at roughly $15 billion and 42% of open interest, with the option book positioned for $75,000 to $76,000 and spot going through it at $84,000 without a move. That is a clean result. What it does not fix is the flow: the ETF buying that drove last week's move has been close to zero since Tuesday's $715 million, bitcoin is below the roughly $86,000 average cost of the ETF holders, and a stock that trades as a duration asset is sitting under a 10-year that touched 5.14% Thursday and is 5.17% this morning after Williams said another hike by year-end is "reasonable." The position is well above our $94.78 average entry in this book. The caveats stand: bitcoin is a third below its all-time high, and at roughly 36% of the unit MSTR's day is HR's day in both directions; this week it was the only thing in the book going the wrong way. The trim question is live and we owe you an answer. The concentration flag stays.

The macro is the same argument as yesterday with the sign flipped on one side. Cheaper oil was half of what let leverage work this month, and Thursday's Reuters report put the first concrete shape on a Hormuz deal: Brent closed up 3.4% at $106.60 but well off its $107.93 high, and it is $105.30 this morning, WTI $93.06. The caveats are real. Neither side wants to give up leverage first, which is what killed the June memorandum; Baghaei's seven conditions go well beyond the strait; Iranian lawmakers registered the impeachment motion against Araghchi; the White House says it has little incentive to give ground; and the Houthis fired six ballistic missiles at Saudi cities overnight. But the East-West pipeline is back, Saudi sold close to 100 million barrels to Asia for October and November, and crude is behaving as if delay, not escalation, is the base case. The other half, a Fed that might be done, got no help: Williams, the Fed's number two, backed another hike by year-end and said forward guidance is "over"; durable goods orders were flat this morning against a forecast decline, July was revised up, nondefense capital goods orders rose 1.2%, and the backlog grew for the 25th time in 26 months; October is about 70% priced. The Xi visit ended with the trade truce extended to January 10 and, per Trade Representative Greer, chips not on the agenda at all; not one H200 has shipped to China since December because Beijing will not license the use, so the dinner delivered nothing to the semiconductor sleeve and nothing was in the numbers to lose. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up 2.3% against Thursday's update and up 12.2% on the week, with the chip and power names recovering on the Hormuz report, Bloom's counterparties patching Thursday's crack inside a day, and bitcoin holding $84,000 through the year's largest options expiry. MSTR is the only position lower, and it is the biggest one. Next week: the scandium lead-plaintiff deadline Monday, UEC's results Tuesday, Micron and core PCE Wednesday, the quarter ends Wednesday, the September jobs report Friday, and whether Tehran sends anyone to the next round.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, September 25, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.