High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 23 published unit ($1,796). Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 23) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 24): today’s move is measured against the Sep 23 published update ($1,796). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 23 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 23) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,727 on the current whole-share model, -3.8% versus Wednesday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +19.1% so far, and 2026 YTD is +5.5%, a fourth straight positive print for the year. Wednesday got worse into the close, the Nasdaq down 1.1% to 26,936 and the Russell 2000 down 1.8%, and this morning opened lower again, the Nasdaq off 0.8% and the Russell another 1.8%. The macro reason is the bond market: the 10-year is 5.12% this morning and touched 5.14%, the highest since 2007, the 2-year 4.90%, the highest since 2023, and the 30-year touched 5.44%, a level not seen since 2004, after Wednesday's flash PMIs came in at 58.4, the strongest since July 2021, with input costs at a four-year high, and Fed Governor Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." That is three Fed officials in three days saying September was a first step, and futures now price an October hike at 73% to 77% from about 53% a few days ago. Claims were 197,000, below forecast. A 5% 10-year is the direct threat to a 3x fund and the reason we have not added here for two weeks; today it is 5.12%. But the worst position this morning has a company reason, and we want to be direct about it. BE (-7.7%) is down after Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, the 2.45-gigawatt AI campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, that is Bloom's largest single fuel-cell order. The trigger is the 17-mile Green Chile gas pipeline that feeds the site, which Energy Transfer has pushed from August 2026 to February 2027 after the State Land Office refused right-of-way permits; Oracle is telling the developer, a Blue Owl unit, that it wants relief from payments if the campus misses its 2028 start. Read it plainly: Bloom's fuel cells replaced the gas turbines at Jupiter after community pushback, but they still burn gas, so a late pipeline delays Bloom's deliveries. It does not cancel them, the contract stands, and Oracle's notice is aimed at its landlord, not its supplier. It is still the first crack in the order-book story since the S&P 500 add, it lands four days before the lead-plaintiff deadline in the scandium-sourcing lawsuit, and a stock up more than 200% this year does not get the benefit of the doubt on a 5% 10-year. HOLD, and it goes on the watch list next to the trim question. SOXL (-7.3%) is the other big drag, and that one is three things at once: the chip index fell 1% Wednesday after a 14% five-day run, Michael Burry disclosed he added to shorts on Micron, the semiconductor ETF, Nebius and Palantir "in some size" with a call that the memory shortage "will blow off as production catches up" within two years, and the Nasdaq opened down 0.8% on the rate. A 3x fund turns that into a 7% hole. Micron reports next Wednesday and the shortage has not changed this week, but a 3x fund does not get to wait for the print; the SOXL swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund is still under review and we will put it in front of you before Micron reports. TQQQ (-4.2%) is lower with the Nasdaq, where Oracle, down another 4% on the same force majeure report, is the biggest single drag; that is the debt and permitting side of the AI trade being repriced. NBIS (+2.4%) is the only green name in the book, no new company headline today; Burry named it in his short list Wednesday and it fell 4%, this morning it is getting some of that back, and the October 1 GPU price increase, its second, stands. HOLD on all four.

MSTR (-2.6%), at roughly 38% of this book, is lower against Wednesday's mark, most of that in Wednesday's session, and a touch firmer at this morning's open with bitcoin near $83,400, down about 2% overnight and now below the roughly $86,000 average cost of the ETF holders, the level we flagged as the place where January's buyers can leave at breakeven. The flows say the buying paused rather than reversed: US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $32 million Wednesday, a fifth straight inflow day on paper, but all of it was Morgan Stanley's new fund and BlackRock's and Fidelity's recorded nothing either way, after $999 million Monday and $715 million Tuesday. About $2.3 billion over five days is real allocation; a $32 million day after that is buyers stepping back on a day when everything with duration was sold, and bitcoin is trading as a duration asset this week, not as a hedge. A $15.9 billion options expiry lands Friday, which is the next event. Strategy bought 950 coins Monday, its first purchase in three weeks, and is buying back its STRC preferred; a Trump financial disclosure filed this week shows a personal MSTR purchase, for what that is worth. The position is well above our $94.78 average entry in this book. The caveats stand: bitcoin is a third below its all-time high, the last two weeks have included both the biggest outflow days since June and the biggest inflow day of the year, and at roughly 38% of the unit MSTR's day is HR's day in both directions. The trim question is live and we owe you an answer this week. The concentration flag stays.

The macro that let leverage work this month is being taken away on two fronts at once. Cheaper oil was half of it, and Iran put the premium back: Pezeshkian told the UN "we did not bow our heads or bend the knee," Rubio said Tuesday's three hours produced no major breakthrough and a deal "would require negotiations over time," a senior Iranian official told Reuters "many differences remain," and overnight Iranian hardliners filed an impeachment request against Foreign Minister Araghchi, with the IRGC-linked Tasnim agency claiming his meeting with Witkoff was never authorized. When the market cannot tell who speaks for Tehran, it prices delay: Brent is $106.22 this morning, up 3% on top of Wednesday's 4%, WTI $94.52. The diesel export ban was floated, drafted and killed inside one afternoon and has become a voluntary cut negotiated with refiners; diesel is still $6.53. The other half was a Fed that might be done, and three speakers in three days plus a blowout PMI have priced a second hike for October, six days before the midterms. Xi is at the White House today; the one hard deliverable, extending the trade truce from November 10 to January 10, landed before the meeting, and tonight's state dinner seats Jensen Huang and Tim Cook next to the two men who decide whether Nvidia ever sells a data-center chip in China again. That is upside that is not in any chip number, and it is the one thing on today's calendar that could turn the semiconductor sleeve. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is down 3.8% against Wednesday's update with the 10-year at 5.12% and an October hike three-quarters priced, Bloom hit by Oracle's force majeure on its biggest project, the chip sleeve hit by Burry's shorts and a Nasdaq trading the rate, and MSTR below the ETF holders' cost basis on a day the inflows stalled. Watch the 10-year against 5.1%, any Bloom or Oracle statement on Jupiter, whether Araghchi survives the week, anything on export licenses out of tonight's dinner, bitcoin against $83,000 into Friday's expiry, and Micron next Wednesday.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, September 24, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.