High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 21 published unit ($1,733). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 21) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 22): today’s move is measured against the Sep 21 published update ($1,733). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 21 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 21) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,789 on the current whole-share model, +3.2% versus Monday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +23.4% so far, and 2026 YTD is +9.3%, which keeps the book in positive territory for the year after Monday's first positive print since June 23. Most of today's move was earned in Monday's session after that update went out, and this time it was the chip sleeve rather than bitcoin. The Nasdaq closed up 2.3% at 27,122, its first record since June, and the Nasdaq-100 rose 2.15%; TQQQ (+6.1%) carries that at three times. The trigger was Meta: its Muse assistant held the top free-app slot for a third straight day, Wells Fargo lifted its target to $796 from $640 on an "unprecedented download and active user trajectory," and the stock rose 11.3%, its best day since April 2025. Muse plans, browses and acts across multiple steps on its own, and an agent like that leans on general-purpose CPUs far more than a single prompt does, so the money went to the CPU makers: Arm +17%, Intel +12%, AMD +10% to a $1 trillion valuation for the first time, the Philadelphia semiconductor index +4.3% for a fifth straight day, Nvidia only +2.3%. SOXL (+8.1%) owns the whole index at three times, which is why it is up so much more than Nvidia against Monday's mark: a rotation from GPU to CPU inside the sector is a wash for the index and a windfall for a fund that holds all of it. The position is still under review for a swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund, and a week like this is the place to make that change rather than a drawdown; we will put a proposal in front of you before Micron reports on September 30. NBIS (+5.0%) is higher with no company news, riding the same AI-infrastructure bid; the October 1 GPU price increase stands and the $5 billion convertible remains the open dilution question. BE (-0.8%) is a touch lower in its second session inside the S&P 500, which is the post-inclusion digestion we said to expect now that the index buying is done; the stock has to earn it on orders from here, and the Nebius fuel-cell contract is why we own it. HOLD on both.

MSTR (+1.1%), at roughly 38% of this book, is a touch higher against Monday's mark, and the flat print hides the best day the bitcoin ETFs have had all year. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million on Monday, past the $844 million record set on January 14: BlackRock's IBIT $381.4 million, ARK's ARKB $289.1 million, Fidelity's FBTC $238.8 million, Morgan Stanley's new MSBT $61.7 million. That is three straight inflow days after $746 million left around the Fed and the failed CLARITY vote, and it answers the question we asked Friday about whether the buyers were leverage or allocation: allocation. Strategy joined them, buying 950 bitcoin for about $76 million to reach 846,000 coins, its first purchase in three weeks, which matters because the company sitting on its hands had been part of the bear case. Bitcoin traded as high as $87,354 on Monday and is near $86,000 this morning, up about 10% on the week and 31% below January's all-time high of $126,080. MSTR's 9.5% Monday gain to $168.50 was almost entirely in the opening print we already locked, so the day's number here is small; the position is well above our $94.78 average entry in this book. The caveats do not change because the flows did. The average cost basis of the ETF holders is about $86,000, exactly here, so this is where January's buyers can leave at breakeven; the technicians have resistance at $87,300 to $87,500; and $262 million of shorts liquidated in the past day did part of the lifting. At roughly 38% of the unit, MSTR's day is HR's day in both directions, and the trim question is now a live one we owe you an answer on this week. The concentration flag stays.

The macro is still doing the work for leverage, and it got more concrete overnight. Reuters has a senior Iranian official saying Tehran can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, with the proposal delivered through mediators on September 16 and the delegation in New York holding "full authority to revive diplomacy." Rubio: "We're open to that, especially if it has prospects of leading to something positive," with the caveat that Iran "can never have a nuclear weapon" and that nothing is scheduled. Trump addresses the General Assembly this morning and Pezeshkian tomorrow, Iran's military is still threatening "retaliation without limitations," and the oil market is pricing a negotiation rather than a deal: Brent down a fifth straight day to about $98, WTI just under $90, both the lowest since September 8. CENTCOM says Hormuz flows are at a six-month high and Reuters has the Saudi East-West pipeline restarted. Cheaper crude is a lower long end is room for leveraged index funds, and the 10-year is at 4.94% for a second day under 5%. The pushback came from Chicago's Goolsbee in London: "The only way to bring inflation down is to raise rates and narrow the gap between supply and demand," and "It's going to be painful," with AI data-center investment named as the demand pressure that could force more than one additional hike. That is the direct threat to a 3x Nasdaq fund and the reason we are not adding here; Barkin speaks today, nine more follow this week, and core PCE on September 30 settles it. Diesel set a record at $6.51 on Monday with crude falling, and Xi arrives tomorrow for the first Chinese state visit since 2015, with tariff cuts on nonstrategic goods under discussion and a new 100% tariff threat on Russian-energy buyers hanging over the room; Jensen Huang is on the dinner list, which is the chip-export question in its most direct form. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up +3.2% today, with the chip sleeve carrying it after Monday's AI rotation from GPUs to CPUs took the Nasdaq to a record, while MSTR sits flat on top of the biggest bitcoin ETF inflow of the year and Strategy's first purchase in three weeks. Iran's seven-day Hormuz offer has WTI under $90 and the 10-year under 5%, which is the setup that lets leverage work; Goolsbee's "painful" is the reminder of what takes it away. Watch Trump's UN speech this morning, whether bitcoin clears $87,500 with the ETF buyers sitting at their own cost basis, how SOXL digests a five-day chip run into the Xi summit, and Barkin against Goolsbee this afternoon.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.