High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 18 published unit ($1,574). Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 18) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 21): today’s move is measured against the Sep 18 published update ($1,574). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 18 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 18) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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High Risk is marked at $1,733 on the current whole-share model, +10.1% versus Friday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +19.5% so far, and 2026 YTD is +5.9%, which puts the book back in positive territory for the year for the first time since June 23. Today is mostly about one position. Bitcoin traded through $85,000 overnight, its highest since January 29, up about 6% in 24 hours and roughly 9% from Friday's open, and MSTR (+21.4%), at roughly 39% of this book, is the reason the unit is where it is. It closed Friday up 16.4% at $153.92 and opened another 9% higher this morning near $168, so most of the move against Friday's published mark of $138.40 landed after that update went out. The flows we said had to turn did: US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $433 million on Friday, the largest day since September 3, with Fidelity's FBTC at $310.7 million and BlackRock's IBIT at $108.4 million, enough to flip a week that had lost $746 million around the Fed decision and the CLARITY failure to a small net inflow. Two caveats before anyone extrapolates. Around $600 million of crypto shorts were liquidated over the weekend, so a chunk of the move is forced covering, and the average cost basis of the ETF holders is about $86,000, right where the price is now, which is where January's top-buyers get to sell at breakeven; Rekt Capital is already flagging a bearish divergence on the daily chart. Warsh hiked, the 10-year is still near 5%, the dollar is above 100, and bitcoin went up anyway; that is the relief trade the whole market is running today at a higher beta. At roughly 39% of the unit, MSTR's day is HR's day, in both directions. The concentration flag stays, and it is louder this morning than it was Friday.

BE (-2.0%) is trading its first session as an S&P 500 member, having replaced Molson Coors in the index over the weekend. Friday's close was the textbook inclusion unwind: the stock fell about 5% into the closing auction as the forced index buying arrived and then ended, which is the digestion we said to expect. Two things this morning cut the other way. Mizuho raised its target to $351 from $242 ahead of the open and kept it at Outperform, citing stronger pricing and demand, and the broader power-for-data-centers story got another data point last week when Generac won an $8 billion Amazon backup-generation deal. We own it for the Nebius fuel-cell contract and what it says about who is buying power, not for the index; the index is done buying, so from here the stock has to earn it on orders. HOLD.

The chip sleeve has the better tape this morning. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1%, the best of the three indexes, and SOXL (+11.7%) is extending Friday's gain with TQQQ (+4.3%) higher. There is no single chip headline behind it. The move is the AI trade reopening on Bessent's proposed US-China AI dialogue, lower oil and a softer 10-year, and a 3x fund turns a 2% sector move into 6%; roughly half of SOXL's gain against Friday's mark came in Friday's session after that update went out. Part of it is Thursday's Trump-Xi summit: Xi's state visit runs Wednesday to Friday, the agenda is extending the tariff truce, rare earths and a new US-China AI dialogue that Bessent proposed over the weekend, and Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Satya Nadella and Qualcomm's Cristiano Amon are on the dinner list, which puts China chip exports back in the headlines in the most direct way possible. Huang told Dreamforce last week Nvidia will sell twice as many chips next year. The next hard number is Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter report next Wednesday, September 30, with at least ten analysts raising targets into it; the memory shortage is the data-center bottleneck, and that print will say whether it is getting tighter. NBIS (+3.2%) is higher with no new company news; the October 1 GPU price increase we covered Friday stands, and the $5 billion convertible is still the open dilution question. SOXL remains the position under review for a swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund; a rally is a better place to make that change than a drawdown, and we will discuss it this week.

The macro is doing the rest of the work for leverage. Brent is down a fourth straight session, the longest streak in three months, to about $102 and an 11-day low, with WTI near $98, because Saudi crude is moving through Hormuz at 2.9 million barrels a day against 700,000 in August and because Trump said Sunday he is in "deciding mode" on Iran and would "probably be open" to meeting President Pezeshkian at the UN this week, while Tehran sent six conditions through Qatar, including lifting the naval blockade. Lower oil is lower inflation risk is a lower long end: the 10-year is about 4.95% this morning from 5.01% Friday, the 2-year 4.74%, and the VIX is under 15. The caveats are real. The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh on Saturday, the first attempt on the Saudi capital in this phase of the war, and diesel hit a record $6.505 a gallon the same day, up 87 cents this month. Ten Fed officials speak this week, starting with Goolsbee today and Barkin tomorrow, and it is the first read on how much of the committee shares Warsh's view; futures still price near-even odds of an October hike that we think the election calendar argues against. Core PCE on September 30 is the number that settles it. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up +10.1% today, and most of it is one name, with the chip sleeve doing the rest. Bitcoin's breakout above $85,000 on real ETF inflows and a short squeeze put MSTR in charge of this book again, BE starts life in the S&P 500 with a $351 target from Mizuho, and falling oil plus a softer 10-year are giving the leveraged index funds room to run into Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. The tape underneath is narrow, with more than half of S&P 500 stocks below their 200-day average and the Russell 2000 more than 5% off its high, so this is a rally in what we own rather than a broad one. Watch whether bitcoin holds $85,000 once the squeeze clears, how BE trades now that the index buying is over, and what the Fed speakers say about October.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, September 21, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.