High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 17 published unit ($1,518). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 17) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 18): today’s move is measured against the Sep 17 published update ($1,518). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 17 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 17) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,574 on the current whole-share model, +3.6% versus Thursday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +8.5% so far, and 2026 YTD is -3.8%. Against last Friday's update the book is +2.0% on the week, which for a three-times leveraged book that lost almost 5% on Monday is the story in one number. Today is quarterly triple witching and the S&P Dow Jones quarterly rebalance, and that matters directly here: BE joins the S&P 500 effective before Monday's open, replacing Molson Coors, so every index fund that tracks the S&P has to own it by tonight's close. BE (-0.7%) is flat to lower into that print after a 4% gain Thursday. The usual pattern is a run into inclusion and a digestion afterward as the forced buying ends; we own it for data-center power demand, not for the index, and Thursday gave that case another data point when Generac rose 18% on an $8 billion deal to supply Amazon with backup generation for data centers.

The macro week ended in relief, which is what a leveraged book needs. The Fed hiked Wednesday and the market decided Thursday that a credible chair beats a scared one; the S&P rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.7%, the 10-year ended an eight-session climb at 4.94%, and overnight the Bank of Japan added its own quarter point to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, on a split 7-2 vote that left the yen weaker and the Nikkei 1.5% higher. Two of the three biggest central banks tightened in the same week and global equities went up. The Nasdaq is on track for a weekly gain while the S&P and Dow are down on the week, so this is a tech-led relief, which is the right kind for TQQQ (+1.9%) and SOXL (+3.8%). The chip side got a second push Thursday when Micron added another 5% after Intel's Lip-Bu Tan said memory bottlenecks get worse in 2027, not better; the semiconductor index is now up on the week after being down double digits at Monday's low. Trump's response to the hike, rates should be 1% "or less" and the board is "very hostile," while saying he still relies on Warsh, is noise for now, but the October meeting is six days before the midterms and the pressure for a hold will be loud.

NBIS (+1.4%) has its own catalyst. Nebius raised on-demand GPU prices about 20% effective October 1: an H100 hour goes from $3.85 to $4.50, an H200 from $4.50 to $5.40, a B200 from $7.15 to $8.50, and the B300 to $9.50. The stock spiked 11% Thursday morning before settling, and IREN rose 6% on the read-through that scarce capacity can be re-rented at higher rates. Futurum's Daniel Newman: "AI demand remains off the charts. Raising prices 20% is just another example of that demand." Nebius is running at an $8 billion annualized revenue rate against a $3.2 billion full-year guide, and a supplier that can raise prices 20% into a supposed slowdown is not seeing one. The $5 billion convertible remains the open question on dilution, and it does not change today.

MSTR (+7.9%), at roughly 35% of this book, leads it today, and the reason is flows, the thing we said had to turn. Bitcoin is back above $78,000, up about 2.5% in 24 hours, and spot ETFs took in $159.5 million Thursday with BlackRock's IBIT at $183.7 million, the first net inflow after $746 million left in the two sessions around the Fed decision and the failed CLARITY vote. The week is still net negative by roughly $587 million, so this is a change in direction, not yet a trend. What did change is the regulatory read: CFTC Chair Selig and SEC Chair Atkins both said the agencies will write crypto rules under existing authority without the bill, Deutsche Bank said it will launch institutional bitcoin custody by year-end, and Saylor's argument is that banks lending against bitcoin never needed Congress. The SEC also issued a five-year exemption Thursday letting tokenized versions of US-listed stocks trade on crypto-native venues, and crypto equities opened sharply higher on the combination, with MSTR the biggest mover in the group after Alliance Global started it at Buy with a $217 target on top of this month's Canaccord, B. Riley and Barclays raises. A week ago this position was the reason HR lagged; today it is the reason HR is up more than three times as much as Safe Growth. The concentration flag stays; at a third of the unit, MSTR's day is HR's day. Oil helps at the margin: Brent is down a third straight session to about $103 with WTI at $100 as the Saudis restore half the East-West pipeline and move crude by ship-to-ship transfer off Oman, although diesel set another record at $6.40 and analysts told the Washington Post the worst at the pump is still ahead. For leverage, lower crude is lower inflation risk is lower yields, and that is the same trade as everything else in this book. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up +3.6% today and +2.0% on the week, a full round trip from Monday's low. The Fed and the Bank of Japan both hiked and the market bought tech anyway, Nebius proved AI compute has pricing power, and bitcoin flows finally printed a positive day. Tonight's close will be loud because of witching and the BE index add; watch Monday's open for how BE trades once the forced buying is done, and watch whether the ETF flows hold positive into next week.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, September 18, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.