High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 15 published unit ($1,490). Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 15) published update (Wednesday's update was not sent, so this spans two sessions); September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 17): today’s move is measured against the Sep 15 published update ($1,490) — Wednesday's update was not sent to investors, so this move spans two trading sessions, not one. September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 15 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 15) published update (Wednesday's update was not sent, so this spans two sessions); September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,518 on the current whole-share model, +1.9% versus Tuesday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +4.7% so far, and 2026 YTD is -7.2%. One housekeeping note: Wednesday's update did not go out, so today's move covers two sessions, the Fed day sell-off and this morning's rebound.

The obvious question is how a three-times leveraged book is higher after a hawkish Fed. Wednesday the Fed hiked a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%, the first increase since 2023, unanimously, with sixteen of eighteen officials penciling in one more this year and no cuts in 2027. Warsh was terse: inflation "too high for too long", the standard for confidence "has not been satisfied." Stocks sold off during the presser, the Dow lost 631 points, and the 10-year closed back above 5%. Then the market reconsidered. Futures had priced three or four hikes by next summer; the Fed delivered one more, likely December, because October's meeting is six days before the election. A unanimous vote and an upbeat read on growth from a chair appointed to cut reads as a Fed ahead of inflation rather than chasing it, and the long end rallied on it, the 10-year to 4.96% and the 2-year to 4.69% this morning. Jobless claims at 196,000 against 208,000 expected, with continuing claims at their lowest since January 2024, made the case from the other side: the economy can take the hike. For leverage that is the difference between a hike that ends a cycle of fear and one that starts a cycle of hikes, and the market chose the first reading. TQQQ (+2.1%) is up with the Nasdaq on it.

The bigger driver is Micron. After Wednesday's close it reported the largest quarter in its history, revenue of $41.5 billion against $35.7 billion expected, earnings of $25.11 a share against $20.49, more than $25 billion of data-center revenue in one quarter, and a guide near $50 billion for the next one. The stock is up about 17% premarket and it pulled the whole memory and chip complex with it, SanDisk and Western Digital up double digits, AMD, Intel and Qualcomm higher, the semiconductor index up more than 5% before the open. SOXL (+8.9%) is the best position in the book because it is the levered expression of exactly that move. This is the answer to Saturday's AI-slowdown essay: the shortage that essay was supposed to cool is getting worse, and the customers are paying for it. We have had SOXL on the list of positions to reconsider because of the decay in a three-times fund; a day like this is why it is still here. BE (+5.4%) is the other winner, joining the S&P 500 before Monday's open with index buying at Friday's close, and it trades with data-center power demand, which Micron's capex just reaffirmed. NBIS (-0.1%) is flat, with the $5 billion convertible still the open question.

MSTR (-1.9%), at roughly 34% of this book, is the drag and the reason HR did not do more. Bitcoin is holding near $76,000, but spot ETFs lost another $296 million Wednesday on top of Tuesday's $450 million, about $746 million in two sessions with BlackRock's IBIT leading the redemptions, the CLARITY Act is dead for the year after Tuesday's 49-50 cloture vote, and Strategy has not bought bitcoin in three weeks. Everything else in the book is trading the rates-and-AI story; MSTR is trading a flows story that has not turned. It stays on watch with the concentration flag, and the one thing in its favor is that lower long yields and a softer dollar are the conditions bitcoin has rallied on all year. Oil is the last piece: Brent down 2.8% to about $103 and WTI briefly under $100 after Saudi Arabia started moving crude through Hormuz by ship-to-ship transfer to replace the shut East-West pipeline, with roughly half the pipeline expected back within days. Lower oil is lower inflation risk, which is the same trade as lower yields for a leveraged book. Iran says it will fight "until the last drop of blood", so the premium is lower, not gone. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up +1.9% across the two sessions since Tuesday. Micron proved the AI demand, the Fed proved it will only hike as much as it said, and oil gave the inflation trade a break. The book's problem is concentrated in one name, MSTR, and that is a flows problem we can see, not a macro one we have to guess at.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, September 17, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.