High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 11 published unit ($1,543). Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 11) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 14): today’s move is measured against the Sep 11 published update ($1,543). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 11 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 11) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,467 on the current whole-share model, -4.9% versus Friday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +1.1% so far, and 2026 YTD is -10.4%.

This book is taking the weekend's AI headlines directly on the chin. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay Saturday arguing the industry should slow the pace of its most capable models; Sam Altman and Elon Musk agreed publicly, OpenAI pushed its IPO to 2027, and President Trump rejected the idea on Sunday. Nasdaq-100 futures fell about 1.5% overnight, and the second-tier AI infrastructure names took it far worse than Nvidia: Marvell, Arm and CoreWeave off about 6%, SK Hynix off 7%, SoftBank down nearly 11% in Tokyo. That maps straight onto our positions. SOXL (-15.7%) is three times a chip index that is being sold across the board, NBIS (-7.6%) trades like CoreWeave's neocloud cousin, and BE (-7.7%) is giving back part of last week's S&P 500 inclusion run because data-center power gets sold alongside data-center compute. TQQQ (-5.2%) is three times the index leading the market lower.

Our read is that this is a sentiment shock, not a demand shock. Nvidia guided $108 billion of revenue for one quarter two weeks ago, hyperscaler capex is still running near $800 billion a year, Altman clarified that "pacing" does not mean stopping, and Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid argued that competitive pressure makes a real slowdown unlikely. But a 3x fund does not care about the argument, it cares about today's close, and the same weekend brought Saudi Arabia shutting its East-West pipeline (its main route around the Hormuz blockade), Houthi forces taking Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and Oman postponing the Salalah talks that were supposed to open a temporary Hormuz route. Brent touched $108 two days before a Fed meeting where a 25 basis point hike is roughly 86-90% priced. That is a lot of reasons to de-risk on a Monday and not many to add. The one thing working is MSTR (+2.8%): bitcoin is holding near $77,500 and climbed while tech, gold and silver all fell, and at roughly a third of this book that cushion is why the unit is not down more. No portfolio change today. Bloom's S&P 500 inclusion on Sep 21 is still the next dated catalyst for BE; Wednesday's dot plot decides the rest.

Bottom line: HR is down -4.9% today, with the leveraged chip and AI-cloud sleeve repricing a weekend of slow-down headlines while bitcoin, for once, holds the line.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, September 14, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.