High Risk

Entry: $1,018 on Jan 22, 2026  |  Cost per unit to follow today: $904

Banked at the open

MRVL +178.7% since January, closed in full  ·  eight names net −$43.63/unit  ·  every fill is in the ledger below ↓

Realized Scoreboard — Positions Closed at Today's Open

Realized vs Jan 22, 2026 entry, marked at today's opening fills. MSTR was kept (not sold) and resized. Net is the blended result of the eight names sold.

New Portfolio — Effective Today's Open

Entry prices are today's opening fills. Weights are target allocations of the $904/unit book. Cash held as dry powder.

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Monthly figures are shown only for months we tracked and published daily — our daily archive begins 15 April 2026, so Jan–Mar are marked — rather than estimated. Every figure shown is an actual, live result reconciled against the closing book. No backtests, no hypotheticals, no filled-in gaps.

Calculate Your Position Size

Today we are making the biggest move of the year in High Risk. As of this morning's open we liquidated eight of our nine positions and rebuilt the book around a tighter, more liquid, higher-conviction structure: SOXL at 30%, TQQQ at 20%, MSTR at 25%, and 25% in cash. MSTR is the only name carried forward, and we actually sized it up. The book stood at about $904 a unit at the open, roughly 11.2% below our January 22 entry.

The single-name story-stock basket ran its course. High Risk was built on speculative, catalyst-driven names in quantum, nuclear, space and crypto treasury. That basket worked early in the year and then unwound hard as the market rotated out of pre-revenue names. Carrying eight single-name bets meant every earnings print was a live grenade — and when the market rotated out of pre-revenue names, they all went down together anyway. Idiosyncratic risk one at a time, factor risk all at once: we are done paying for both. On the eight we closed at the open, the standout was MRVL at +178.7% since entry, banked in full. VST finished roughly flat, and the rest were red: RKLB, PLTR and IONQ down double digits, and UEC, BMNR and OKLO each down close to half. One clean multi-bagger, one flat, six losers. Discipline says take the win, cut the bleeders and redeploy.

The new book expresses one clear view — long high-beta semiconductors and tech — through two deep, liquid leveraged ETFs instead of eight company-specific gambles, alongside one single-name conviction we kept and a real cash brake. Here is the case for each, with the mechanics stated plainly.

SOXL — 30% · the AI-buildout core. Semiconductors are the toll booth on the entire AI economy: every dollar of hyperscaler spend eventually clears through a chip — GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, networking silicon, custom ASICs. And that spend is still inflecting, not slowing — the four largest hyperscalers are guiding to roughly $725B of capex in 2026, about +77% year over year, most of it aimed straight at AI infrastructure (Big-4 guidance, as of Jul 2026). SOXL is 3x the ICE Semiconductor Index — the most direct way we press that trend when it is working. The leverage cuts both ways by design: it resets daily, so it compounds fast in a sustained move and decays in choppy tape. That is exactly why it is an actively-managed 30% position, not a set-and-forget hold.

TQQQ — 20% · broad tech beta. If SOXL is the scalpel, TQQQ is the broad sword — 3x the Nasdaq-100. It puts us on the whole megacap-tech complex, including the hyperscalers writing those capex checks, and spreads out the single-name risk that hurt the old book. Same honest mechanics: 3x, daily-reset — a trend expression we size and manage, not a buy-and-hold coupon.

MSTR — 25% · Bitcoin balance-sheet asymmetry. MSTR is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin balance sheet — it holds on the order of 840,000 BTC (as of early Jul 2026) — and its capital structure has historically let it move harder than Bitcoin itself, in both directions. That convexity is why we kept it through the rotation and sized it up. We are deliberately not hanging this on a rate-cuts-are-coming story — the futures market currently leans the other way — so we are not selling a macro call the tape is pricing against. The case is asymmetry, not certainty, which is why it is capped at 25% with a 25% cash brake behind it.

Cash — 25% · dry powder. A full quarter of the book in cash, held as a brake after this year's drawdown, so we can add on strength or into a pullback rather than being fully committed at the turn. Aggressive where we have conviction, defensive where we do not.

Portfolio Builder | Portfolio Rotation | Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.